Interactive historical chart showing the monthly level of U.S. crude oil production back to 1983 from the US Energy Information Adminstration (EIA). Preliminary data for September show that crude stocks in the US and Japan fell by 6.5 mb and 1.8 mb, respectively, while those in Europe rose by 3.3 mb. Excess oil inventories for OECD is pegged at 209.1 million barrels. Our 2021 forecast is also largely unchanged at 97.2 mb/d, showing a gain of 5.5 mb/d from 2020. Crude oil prices are determined by global supply and demand. The most striking feature of the oil market is the low price elasticity of demand. Thank you for subscribing. (13 April 2020) OPEC+ countries agreed to cut their overall oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the 10th extraordinary meeting held on April 12. Recent developments in US oil demand tell a similar story. While the situation remains fluid, we expect global oil demand to fall in 2020 – the first full-year decline in more than a decade – because of the deep contraction in China, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth in 2019, and major disruptions to travel and trade. We also present the final data for Jan/Dec 2019 (with comparison for the preceding 4 years) for: Updated on 18 December 2020. This implies a huge and ever widening gap between oil supply and the demand profiles. Overall, global oil demand in the second quarter is only slightly lower than a year ago. Our global demand and supply estimates (including an assumption of full compliance with the OPEC+ agreement) imply a significant stock draw of 4 mb/d in the fourth quarter. Coronavirus, Crude Oil, Forecast; Export . Our balances assume an increase in Libyan production from 0.3 mb/d currently to 0.7 mb/d in December. Malaysian palm oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. The statistics are based on the OIL WORLD Monthly of 11 December 2020. Skip navigation. Total non-OPEC supply is set to drop by 2.6 mb/d in 2020 before recovering by 0.4 mb/d in 2021. In 2021, runs will rebound only partially, to levels last seen in 2015. In our base case, the outbreak is brought under control in China by the end of the first quarter but spreads across many other countries beyond Iran, Korea, Japan, Singapore, the United States and Europe. Furthermore, oil price changes often impact the rest of the economy. Malaysian palm oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus. Covid-19 (coronavirus) has spread beyond China and our 2020 base case global oil demand forecast is cut by 1.1 mb/d. Strong gains in global refinery throughput in July and relatively stable runs in August and September came at the cost of steep falls in margins, which in 3Q20 saw one of their worst quarters. In October, Hurricane Delta shut in record volumes of United States offshore production, although initial reports suggest that damage to infrastructure is limited and output is expected to recover quickly. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. In 1Q20, the call is 25 mb/d, 3.5 mb/d below the group’s assumed output for the period. This is the largest oil production cut ever negotiated aimed at stabilizing oil prices. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. On March 5, 2020, OPEC proposed a 1.5 million barrel per day (mb/d) production cut for the second quarter of 2020, of which 1 mb/d would come from OPEC countries and 0.5 mb/d from non-OPEC but aligned producers, most prominently Russia. The impact on the world economy is becoming more apparent, and growth estimates for this year are being downgraded. 2020 Oil Prices. Stocks peaked at 3.204 billion in May 2020. Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Oil - US Crude for the first time since Dec 09, 2020 when Oil - US Crude traded near 4,590.60. ICE Brent fell by-$3.15/bbl and NYMEX WTI by -$2.76/bbl m-o-m to $41.87/bbl and $39.63/bbl, respectively. OPEC said worldwide oil demand was expected to increase by nearly 10 million barrels per day (b/d) over the long term, rising to 109.3 million b/d in 2040, and to 109.1 million b/d in 2045. Citizens are no longer driving to work; planes remain on the ground. In this Report we provide a Low Case and a High Case detailing weaker and stronger outlooks, respectively. Unlike some of her European peers, Hollub sees strong long-term demand for oil. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. With falling demand and increasing supply, the front-month price of the U.S. benchmark crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from a year-to-date high closing price of $63.27 per barrel (b) on January 6 to a year-to-date low of $20.37/b on March 18 (Figure 1), the lowest nominal crude oil price since February 2002. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. OPEC estimated that total global oil demand will come in at 99.73 million b/d in 2020, with the second half of the year expected to see higher consumption than the first half. Due to the coronavirus outbreak weighing on economic growth, OPEC now sees global oil demand rising by mere 60,000 bpd in 2020 after it has slashed … In February and into March, Chinese run cuts pressured the price of crude from the Middle East and West Africa in particular. Countries. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. In 1Q20, refining intake has been revised down by 1.2 mb/d, primarily due to China, where February runs are estimated at 10.1 mb/d, down 2.7 mb/d y-o-y. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - October 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2020. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. - The supply-demand imbalance favors dwindling supplies over the coming months, a tailwind for crude oil prices. The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance. Economic growth is one of the biggest factors affecting petroleum product—and therefore crude oil—demand. If these countries cannot supply oil because they are impeded from doing so, and demand remains constant, oil prices will go up. Due to cutbacks around the world, supply and demand for oil will likely balance again by the end of 2021, she said. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020. Short-term floating storage of crude oil built 1.9 mb in February to 80.2 mb, most of which is owned by Iran. This outbreak gives negative effects on the country’s economy from global supply and demand shocks and also domestic factors during the lockdown. That's down by 8.8 million b/d from 2019. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising above $40 a barrel, as the IEA increased its oil demand forecast for 2020 and as record supply cuts supported. World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast, 2020-2021 . Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept people inside. For 2020 as a whole, the magnitude of the drop in the first half leads to a decline in global oil demand of around 90,000 barrels per day, the first annual fall since 2009. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value. February margins saw short-lived support from falling crude oil prices. The current level of U.S. crude oil production as of December 2020 is 11,000.00 thousand barrels per day. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d. The EIA estimates global oil and liquid fuels demand will be 92.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020. ICE Brent fell below $46/bbl during 6 March, the lowest level since June 2017. Posted on October 17, 2020 October 16, 2020 by Robert Boslego. These events may create uncertainty about future supply or demand, which can lead to higher volatility in prices. Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart. It was impossible at that time to know how extensive the damage from the pandemic would be and for how long life support would be needed. In the second quarter, as the situation in China improves, demand deteriorates in some other large economies, such as Japan and Europe. While China has taken strong measures in response to the outbreak, the situation appears to be worsening around the world, with more than 60 countries reporting cases. When assessing the impact of oil prices on the global economy, economists typically distinguish between supply- and demand-driven oil shocks. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - March 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2020. Our pessimistic low case assumes that countries already affected by the virus recover more slowly while the epidemic spreads further in Europe, Asia, and beyond. In a more optimistic high case, we assume that the situation comes swiftly under control in China and the most serious contagion remains limited to a few countries, with no serious impact in most of Europe and North America. Due to the coronavirus outbreak weighing on economic growth, OPEC now sees global oil demand rising by mere 60,000 bpd in 2020 after it has slashed … We assume that oil demand returns to close to normal in 2H20. In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. The implication, therefore, is that the OPEC+ countries will be free to exercise their commercial judgement when assessing future levels of production. It takes longer to control the propagation of the virus, and the contraction in Chinese oil demand eases more slowly in March. Download chart. Our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 91.7 mb/d, down 8.4 mb/d from 2019. The forward curve for 3.5% fuel oil suggests strength may continue into 2020. Recent developments in US oil demand tell a similar story. The above graph highlights 2020 oil prices, making clear the effects of COVID-19 on the markets. Against a background of collapsing global oil demand, OPEC+ producers met on 6 March to review the market situation. Coronavirus Data and Insights . SOYBEANS : World Supply and Demand ( Mn T ) … Also, maintenance and unplanned outages curbed output in Brazil, Canada and the North Sea. Causes of world crude oil prices and supply disruptions. OECD industry stocks rose by 27.8 mb to 2 930 mb in January as a build in product inventories more than offset counter-seasonal draws in crude stocks. European demand remains subdued in the third quarter, and demand in the United States grows at a slower pace. This surely raises doubts about the robustness of the anticipated economic recovery and thus the prospects for oil demand growth. This outbreak gives negative effects on the country’s economy from global supply and demand shocks and also domestic factors during the lockdown. The IEA predicts non-OPEC supply to expand by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and by another 2.2 mb/d in 2020, with demand growth figures running at about half those levels. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks, Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2020. (Data shown in the table is for 2016. Global supply fell 0.6 mb/d to 91.1 mb/d in September, down 8.7 mb/d on 2019, as the UAE slashed output and maintenance cut flows in the North Sea and Brazil, more than offsetting a US rebound from August’s hurricane shut-ins. Of greater long term significance is the potential for a sustained increase in production from Libya. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. A statement issued at the end of the meeting made no mention of supply restraint, saying only that further consultations will take place. World Oil Supply And Price Outlook - September 2020. Demand-driven shocks are related to the evolution of global demand and as such are not expected to have an independent effect on the global economy. As we move through the second half of the year, demand picks up, growing by 1.1 mb/d compared with the second half of 2019. Stabilising the market was the aim and to the extent that oil prices have been remarkably steady since mid-June and observed oil stocks drew in the third quarter (-0.9 mb/d ), the efforts of the producers have shown some success. Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2019 (pdf), Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. OPEC revised down by another 400,000 bpd its forecast for global oil demand this year, expecting consumption to shrink by 9.5 million bpd over 2019 This chart shows how projections of changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production results in changes in WTI crude oil prices. 2020-12-23 03:23:00 2020 global demand may average 16 mmb/d lower than in 2019 Producers will be forced to cut production because of low price and low demand Supply-demand balance will follow L-shaped trajectory as markets remain over-supplied Also, there is a risk that the demand recovery is stalled by the recent increase in Covid-19 cases in many countries. Long Run Forecast In the long run, which “ is a time frame in which the quantity of all factors of production can be varied ” (Parkin 2010, p.214), oil demand and supply … Data are far from complete but, in the first quarter, the visible decline in transport, industrial and commercial activity points to a massive drop in global oil demand of 2.5 mb/d compared with the first quarter of last year. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. For example, oil supply may be increased through new extraction technologies or the discovery of new oil fields (Mail Online. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya's crude output. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. "A demand drop of 10% is the New Normal with oil," said John Driscoll, director of JTD Energy Services in Singapore and a former oil trader whose career spans nearly 40 years. Release Date: 12/31/2020: Next Release Date: 1/29/2021 In the first quarter, China suffers the most with a year-on-year drop in oil demand of 1.8 mb/d as factories shut down and large-scale confinement measures curb transportation. Oil Prices Fall As Supply Jumps. Crude futures fell in September versus August, partly reflecting weaker financial markets. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). The report will touch on supply and demand projections out to 2045. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. 2009), which will shift the supply curve to the right and reduce oil prices. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). Exxon has a announced some pretty game changing predictions for oil supply and demand, and if the company is correct, peak oil is not likely to happen in our lifetimes Under almost any scenario, the world is likely to require significant amounts of investment in new oil production for many years to come. The world will be over-supplied with oil in 2020. With the 1.9 mb/d increase in the OPEC+ production ceiling currently planned for 1 January, there is only limited headroom for the market to absorb extra supply in the next few months. Cite Share. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. In 4Q20, demand and refining forecasts imply large product stock draws, but refinery margins may not get an immediate boost. The International Energy Agency has cut its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next on weakness in major world economies. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. TABLE OF CONTENTS. Counter shows current estimate.) It is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry. The agreed 9.7 mb/d production cut is planned for the two months starting on 1 May 2020. In the past few weeks, Covid-19 (coronavirus) has gone from being a Chinese health crisis to a global health emergency. Satellite data show a near 1 mb/d increase in Chinese stocks, reflecting slowing demand. Interactive charts of West Texas Intermediate (WTI or NYMEX) crude oil prices per barrel back to 1946. In this chart, WTI price levels are graphed with world GDP growth rates (as an indicator of global oil demand growth) and quarterly changes in world capacity, defined as OPEC capacity plus non-OPEC production (as an indicator of global oil supply growth). Supply didn’t fall and demand didn’t rise in response to the historic plunge in the price of crude. The increase in demand for oil has the same effect as a reduction in supply, that being, the price of oil responds sharply to an increase in demand. Oil statistics 2019, World oil supply and demand, 1971-2018. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. Bookmark ... (EIA), oil supply exceeded demand by around 6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020 and the gap is expected to extend to 11.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter. World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, October 2020. Prices saw a 10% early-October jump ahead of Hurricane Delta. Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record 9.3 million barrels a day this year as government-implemented lockdowns keep the economy at a near standstill, the International Energy Agency said. Thank you for subscribing. Figure 4. "Considering the latest developments, downward risks currently outweigh any positive indicators and suggest further likely downward revisions in oil demand growth, should the current status persist," it said. Soybeans & Products. In September, volumes of crude oil held in floating storage fell sharply by 70 mb (2.33 mb/d) to 139.1 mb. There have been several false dawns in recent years, but the latest ceasefire has seen output pick up already. Projected oil demand in Asia-Pacific is the highest in the world, at 36.7 million barrels daily in 2020, followed closely by the Americas. Physical prices e.g. See Definitions, Sources, and Notes link above for more information on this table. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It expects demand to increase by 5.8 million b/d in 2021. Six months ago leading oil producers came together, supported by an extraordinary meeting of G20 energy ministers, to coordinate massive production cuts to offset the collapse in oil demand caused by Covid-19 lockdowns and so provide life support to the oil market. The resulting higher oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to restrain output in 2020. Stock change for crude oil excludes lease stocks beginning with January 2005 (see explanatory notes). Containment measures have resulted in drastic reductions in international and domestic transportation around the world as countries respond to the rapid spread of the virus. Oil 2020 examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025. Travel restrictions and lower industrial activity due to the virus weighed on cracks for jet fuel, diesel and gasoil. Freight rates remain at historically weak levels as tanker activity sits at a near 10% deficit to 2019 levels. 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